The perils of wishcasting
There are lots of traps that a futurist can fall into. Whether or not you consider them traps at all really depends what sort of futurist you are.
Imagine that you can plot all futurists on two axes. The first axis is objectivity. How much do they try to to extract answers that are independent of their own beliefs, desires and mores. Or alternatively, how much of what they tell you is their opinion or hopes?
On the other axis you might plot their desire to change the world. At one end of the spectrum, they might be politically (small ‘p’) neutral and believe their role is only to inform. And at the other end, they might be an activist, believing it is their job to change the world in some way.
I think it’s absolutely valid to operate as a futurist and exist anywhere on these two axes.
The myth of the objective futurist
It’s impossible for a human being to be entirely objective. Even Vulcans struggle. If you are driven by belief, desire, conviction and you look to the future through that lens, then clearly what you tell clients is going to be a deeply coloured picture of the world. But it can still be valuable.
People expounding on the future driven by a passion can often have a major effect on making that future more real. It probably shouldn’t be the only view of the future anyone relies on. But conviction futurists, as you might call them, can also be very entertaining. And we shouldn’t neglect that part of the job. It’s not for everyone, but personally I enjoy the performance and storytelling parts of the role.
There are very, if any, totally objective foresight exercises. But some are more objective than others. And that’s OK.
The campaigning futurist
What about the other axis. Should a futurist be pushing for a particular version of the future? I’ve had real abuse in the past because I try not to. At least not professionally. Obviously I have my own beliefs, and they inevitably colour my work. But I try to be reasonably objective in my foresight. The majority of my work is into corporate clients or bits of government, and there are lots of people out there trying to change their behaviour. I don’t see that personally as my job: I’m there to inform.
But that doesn’t mean that I don’t also appreciate the role of the campaigning futurist. People with a different income stream to me, and a different set of personal goals*, might find themselves naturally fulfilling a more campaigning role. And we need people with foresight trying to change the world - especially given the overwhelming short-termism that has afflicted us in the recent past.
Be honest with yourself
The problem comes when we are not honest with ourselves, or others, about our position on these two axes. And when we judge others for not being where we think they should. If you’re a campaigning futurist, or one fuelled by conviction, then you need to be up front about it - not least with yourself. There should be no shame or disadvantage in this, just like there should be no criticism of those who try to be more objective and independent.
I believe one of the major challenges the world faces is a lack of people thinking about the future. The ideal scenario is not lots more people thinking about the future in the same way. But rather lots of diversity of opinion and perspective. To get that, we can’t be too prescriptive about approaches to futurism. As long as we’re all honest with each other, and with ourselves.
There’s nothing wrong with wishcasting, as long as we know that’s what it is.
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*One of my absolute favourite parts of this job and the thing that I think originally drew me to it, is that it is an excuse to learn about obscure stuff. And lots of different niches, not just one. To be a campaigner - or a conviction futurist - you probably have to be much more narrowly focused and deeply expert in one domain. Where as I love skipping across domains to learn new things. I don’t really care if it’s fashion or finance, the world is fascinating in all its niches.